Convention Wisdom

This is a point in time. The Democrats and the Republicans have completed their conventions, the speeches have been made and a 60 day campaign has started.

I intend to vote for Senator Obama, and I say that to establish my bias, so the scribbling will be in context. I think Senator McCain is too old at 72 to be the president, not because 72 is too old per se, but because the 5 years in a Vietnamese prison have taken a toll on him physically and psychologically. President Clinton left office in 2001 at 54, President Bush will leave office at 62, and this is not a time to elect someone at 72, particularly an “old” 72.

The question is whether or how Senator Obama can lose my vote. What could he do to lose my vote? One idea would be to pick a vice president who is a partisan insider to bring out the worst of Washington’s gridlock politics. Done.

A second idea would be to give a pandering, low road, attack dog convention speech. Done. Perhaps I am Contraria because I thought Senator Obama’s speech was the worst I have heard since I was in the hall in Atlanta in 1988 to hear Governor Dukakis say that the election was “not about ideology, it is about competence”. Playing to his weaknesses Obama dropped his promise to bring different people together and spoke to the thousands in the stadium instead of the millions on TV. Are there really people who believe that he will somehow bring the steel mills and coal mines back to the Midwest? Does he really believe that President Bush is the crux of the election? Did he win the primaries because people thought he would bring more tax cuts than Republicans? Senator Obama decided to play former Senator Gramm’s comments about American “whiners”. Does Obama think he’ll come out ahead in a comparison of what a candidate’s supporters say? How much more time does he want to spend discussing Reverend Wright?

In my humble judgment, in a moment with an opportunity for glory, Barack Obama blew it.

What could Senator McCain do to win my vote? Probably nothing, but hypothetically he could pick a vice president from out of nowhere who could somehow combine a Teflon untouchability with a strong rhetorical breath of fresh air. Oh wait, he did that. Governor Palin's speech was a delight, and her attacks on Obama were measured, understated and hit him where he fairly can be hit. Very unlike the Democrats’ “Bush sucks” sort of thing. Attacks on her experience have merely highlighted that she has more experience than Senator Obama, and Senator Biden’s experience is all bad, and somehow through some mechanism we do not understand the Teflon has protected her from personal circumstances that might have been devastating.

Senator McCain’s acceptance speech was maudlin, backward looking and presented no vision. It was pretty much as anticipated, but with expectations low for him, at least he didn’t blow it.

It is early September. The polls, fonts of ignorance, say the race is even, which I do not understand. By anything I think Senator Obama should be looking at a 40 state victory. Senator Obama is a Black Swan, but so apparently is Governor Palin. Senator Obama has my vote and less than 60 days to lose it.